Warning comes in latest version Emissions Gap Report by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), published Tuesday before COP30 climate conference which opens in Belém, Brazil, next week.
Nearly a decade has passed since world leaders adopted Paris Agreementwhich aims to keep the increase in global average temperature well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and preferably at a threshold of 1.5°C.
Climate action plans
Countries outline their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming through action plans known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC)which are submitted every five years.
The third cycle covers the period until 2035 – and only 60 parties, or less than a third, had submitted new NDCs by the end of September.
THE report reveals that global warming projections for this century, based on full implementation of the NDCs, are now between 2.3 and 2.5°C, compared to 2.6 to 2.8°C in last year’s edition.
Those based on current policies are 2.8°C, compared to 3.1°C last year.
Miss the goal
UNEP noted, however, that methodological updates account for 0.1°C of the improvement, while the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will cancel out another 0.1°C, “which means that the new CDNs themselves have barely moved the needle.”
As a result, nations are still far from achieving the goals of this historic treaty. Therefore, annual emissions reductions of 35% and 55% compared to 2019 levels are needed in 2035 to align with the 2°C and 1.5°C targets.
The report finds that the average increase in global temperature over several decades will exceed 1.5°C, at least temporarily, which will be difficult to reverse.
“While national climate plans have made some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough. This is why we still need unprecedented emissions reductions in an increasingly tight time frame, in an increasingly difficult geopolitical context.said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.
“But it is still possible. Proven solutions already exist,” she added.
“We know what to do”
The report calls for faster and deeper emissions reductions to continue returning to 1.5°C by 2100, where possible.
“Every fraction of a degree avoided reduces an escalation of damage, loss and health impacts that harm all nations. – while hitting the poorest and most vulnerable harder – and reduces the risks of climate tipping points and other irreversible impacts,” UNEP said.
The agency insisted that the international community can accelerate climate action if it wants.
Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, temperature forecasts have increased from 3 to 3.5°C. Additionally, technologies to significantly reduce emissions are available, such as wind and solar power.
“From the rapid growth of cheap renewable energy to tackling methane emissions, we know what needs to be done,” Ms Anderson said.
“Now is the time for countries to pull out all the stops and invest in their future with ambitious climate action – action that delivers faster economic growth, better human health, more jobs, energy security and resilience. »
Accelerate action now: Guterres
UN Secretary-General António Guterres called the report “clear and uncompromising” and urged countries to “intensify and accelerate” their efforts to achieve the 1.5 degree target by the end of the century.
“Our mission is simple – but not easy: to make any overruns as small and as short as possible,” he said in a video message.
“This means immediately peaking global emissions; achieve much greater emissions reductions this decade; significantly reduce methane; accelerate the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy; and protect forests and oceans – our carbon sinks. »
He highlighted that “clean energy is now the cheapest source of electricity in most markets – and the fastest to deploy” and called on leaders to “seize this moment and waste no time” in increasing access to renewable energy.
“The path to 1.5 degrees is narrow – but open,” he said. “Let’s accelerate to keep this pathway alive for people, for the planet and for our shared future. »
Publicado anteriormente en Almouwatin.
